000 AXNT20 KNHC 050603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU NOV 05 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N31W 11N30W 07N29W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W FROM 07N TO 15N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 45W AND 51W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N83W 16N83W 09N81W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN WESTERN HONDURAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRST PARAGRAPH IN THE SECTION ABOUT HISPANIOLA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE RELATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 08N18W 07N30W AND 06N36W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N36W TO 06N41W AND 07N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 08W AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA...MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 80W AND 96W...INCLUDING IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 20N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 91.5W AND 92.5W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF 29N83W 26N90W 19N93W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA FROM MEXICO ALONG 100W...INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.A...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 70W. MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 22N NORTHWARD. ...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N88W IN WESTERN HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA...MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 80W AND 96W...INCLUDING IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 83W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N NORTHWARD FROM 72W WESTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N63W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR SURROUNDS THE CENTER FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 52W AND 61W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 61W/62W FROM 15N TO 21N...IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AS OF 05/0300 UTC. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AT 05/0000 UTC IN BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A SEPARATE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FOLLOW A FEW OBSERVATIONS OF RAINSHOWERS...IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE WILL START ALONG 75W/76W...AND IT WILL MOVE WESTWARD TO 85W/86W BY THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW STILL IS FORECAST TO CROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT TWO DAYS. A RIDGE WILL BE EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS TO HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE PRESENT BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HISPANIOLA WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.34 IN BERMUDA...AND 0.01 IN GUADELOUPE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W. A COLD FRONT...THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 29N56W AND 32N67W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N40W 28N47W 26N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W 30N36W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 30N36W 26N43W 25N56W 30N70W 30N80W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N17W...TO 23N32W 23N50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT