000 AXNT20 KNHC 042359 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED NOV 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N24W TO 14N28W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 25W-32W WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NE OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 21N18W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 26W-29W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO 22N82W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH VERY BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE WAVE ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER HONDURAS IS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-23N BETWEEN 77W-83W...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 14N-24N BETWEEN 72W-91W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 06N28W TO 07N37W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N37W TO 11N51W TO 10N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 10W-14W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-17N BETWEEN 31W- 45W...AND FROM 09N-16N BETWEEN 53W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MOST OF THE GULF BASIN REMAINS UNDER FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS EVENING DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N101W AND AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF WATERS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE. AT THE SURFACE...THE OVERALL PICTURE IS THE SAME AS A RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE DELMARVA TO THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AND THE SW GULF. HOWEVER...ONE EXCEPTION TO THE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN IS THE SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER HONDURAS. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PROVIDING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND A PORTION OF THE SE GULF S OF 25N W OF 87W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA. OTHERWISE... GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HONDURAS THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS NORTHWARD OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE AND THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W... FAVORABLE LIFTING DYNAMICS ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 73W. A PORTION OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WEST OF JAMAICA IN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING AS MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS LOCATED TO THE WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W. FAIR SKIES AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY AS A DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT SLIDES WESTWARD AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN FEATURE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE ATLC IS A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE AZORES NEAR 37N25W TO 30N55W TO 32N65W...THEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA TO THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N81W. THE BOUNDARY IS SUPPORTED LARGELY BY A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ATLC. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE COLD FRONT NEAR 31N40W TO 27N53W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS AND A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE CANARY ISLANDS IS PROVIDING THE EASTERN ATLC WITH FAIR CONDITIONS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN