000 AXNT20 KNHC 041722 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED NOV 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N80W TO 09N80W...MOVING W 15-20 KT. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE AREA IS ALSO FURTHER ENLARGED DUE TO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER HONDURAS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 72W-88W. TO INCLUDE THE WESTERN TIP OF HAITI...S CUBA ...AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N13W TO 07N31W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THIS LAST POINT TO 11N47W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 09N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 12W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-15N BETWEEN 32W-45W...AND FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 57W-60W NEAR TRINIDAD. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 31N84W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 22N87W. FINALLY AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA. MOST OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS W OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 21N59W TO 15N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 20N. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN ...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N61W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION MOSTLY W OF 75W. ...HISPANIOLA... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF HAITI. EXPECT OVER THE THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N66W TO 28N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N40W TO 28N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 30N16W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A LARGE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 25W-70W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY N OF 31N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DIP INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N33W TO 25N53W TO 31N69W WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA