000 AXNT20 KNHC 041159 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED NOV 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE PASSES BY THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N70W...ACROSS HAITI...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N73W...TO 12N74W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI...JAMAICA...AND CUBA...AND FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 67W AND 80W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 07N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N23W TO 06N35W AND 11N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 06N35W 09N36W 10N37W 12N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 02N NORTHWARD TO AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W...AND WITHIN 180 NM OF THE COAST OF AFRICA BETWEEN 10W AND 17W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 26W AND 44W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N14W 23N27W 18N41W 17N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N52W 09N53W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N60W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS THE AREA OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND IT IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 48W AND 66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 53W AND 67W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N94W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FROM 89W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS PARTS OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CURRENT CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N85W AND HONDURAS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA LOW PRESSURE CENTER...ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...TO 25N90W AND 22N94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. ...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS PASSING THROUGH HAITI AT THIS MOMENT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N85W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS BETWEEN THE 16N85W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH THE 15N60W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 15N60W CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 47W AND 63W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 81W FROM 11N TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 75W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA FROM 80W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW ARE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING WERE COVERING THE AREA. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT CENTRAL AMERICA- TO-CUBA RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND THEN ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 04/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.36 IN TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS....0.20 IN CURACAO...AND 0.02 IN GUADELOUPE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 27N34W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 26W AND 44W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N46W 29N52W 29N58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 70W. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N11W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N20W TO 25N32W 26N50W...TO 28N63W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N73W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT