000 AXNT20 KNHC 040605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED NOV 04 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N70W 18N74W 12N73W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE CUTS RIGHT ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 83W. SCATTERED STRONG IN THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF COLOMBIA AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 06N16W 08N24W 08N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N26W TO 09N38W 08N42W 11N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 240 NM OF THE AFRICA COAST BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 14W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N92W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 23N SOUTHWARD FROM 89W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS PARTS OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CURRENT CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS NEAR 16N81W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N84W IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...TO 26N87W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N90W TO 18N93W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SAME GEORGIA LOW PRESSURE CENTER...ACROSS THE WESTERNMOST PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 28N90W AND TO SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 21N97W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 19N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 90W AND 100W EVEN IN MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 89W AND 90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS OF EL SALVADOR. ...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N84W AT THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS BETWEEN THE 16N84W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N58W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 16N58W CYCLONIC CENTER WILL COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 47W AND 63W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N82W 17N81W 15N82W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 75W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING WERE COVERING THE AREA WITH THE 03/2300 UTC SURFACE OBSERVATION. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FOR THE 04/0000 UTC OBSERVATION...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WERE PRESENT. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNEER ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT CENTRAL AMERICA- TO-CUBA RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND THEN ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 04/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.36 IN TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS....0.20 IN CURACAO...AND 0.02 IN GUADELOUPE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N67W 24N70W 22N71W NEAR GRAND TURK ISLAND. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N68W 23N71W 20N74W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 08N TO 16N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 31N10W 29N21W 30N50W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N66W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT