000 AXNT20 KNHC 032352 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE NOV 03 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N70W TO 21N69W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SW NORTH ATLC 700 MB RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 25N69W AND A RELATIVELY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 70W. DUE TO THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THE WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE LAST 24 HOURS...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS INCREASED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N- 20N BETWEEN 65W-74W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 07N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N24W TO 07N36W TO 10N50W TO 08N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-18N BETWEEN 15W-37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 37W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION OF THE SE CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 24N90W TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LIES TO THE WEST ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE DRIFTING WESTWARD. THEREAFTER GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE NICARAGUA THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS NE TO BEYOND 23N78W. WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...FAVORABLE LIFTING DYNAMICS ARE SUPPORTING INCREASED CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND SCATTERED TSTMS W OF 75W. THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS FOCUSED ON A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W TO 20N83W. A PORTION OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF JAMAICA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. TO THE EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE LIES ALONG 70W THAT IS PROVIDING A BROAD AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 13N BETWEEN 65W-75W. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AND REMAIN WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY DIFFLUENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND. THE DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 70W IS PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO BE WEST OF HISPANIOLA...HOWEVER A SLIGHT PROBABILITY REMAINS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER A PORTION OF THE SW NORTH ATLC S OF 30N BETWEEN 70W-80W. THE TROUGHING IS INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS NORTH OF CUBA AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED S OF 21N ALONG 70W IS ALSO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONA AND WINDWARD PASSAGES. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N70W. THE RIDGING STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 30N TO A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 29N26W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN