000 AXNT20 KNHC 031144 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE NOV 03 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N64W 16N65W 11N66W MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 09N13W TO 08N22W AND 07N28W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N28W TO 07N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 16W AND 19W...FROM 09N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W...AND FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 300 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF 24N22W 17N30W 14N43W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 29N20W 26N30W 19N33W AND 12N40W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N92W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 23N SOUTHWARD FROM 89W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS PARTS OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CURRENT CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS NEAR 16N81W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N84W IN SOUTHERN GEORGIA...THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...TO 26N87W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N90W TO 18N93W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SAME GEORGIA LOW PRESSURE CENTER...ACROSS THE WESTERNMOST PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 28N90W AND TO SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 21N97W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 19N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 90W AND 100W EVEN IN MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 89W AND 90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS OF EL SALVADOR. ...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 81W FROM 15N TO 20N. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 73W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM LAKE MARACAIBO TO LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 16N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA ON DAY ONE. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL SPAN HISPANIOLA ON DAY TWO WITH HISPANIOLA FINDING ITSELF AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CURRENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER/TROUGH. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH THE AREA DURING DAY ONE. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL REACH THE AREA DURING DAY TWO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 08N BETWEEN 75W AND BEYOND 82W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.82 IN GUADELOUPE...0.08N IN HAVANA CUBA...AND 0.04 IN CURACAO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N67W 24N70W 22N71W NEAR GRAND TURK ISLAND. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N68W 23N71W 20N74W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 08N TO 16N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 31N10W 29N21W 30N50W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N66W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT