000 AXNT20 KNHC 021728 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON NOV 02 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N60W TO 12N60W...MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS WELL NOTICED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 55W-65W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N17W TO 08N21W TO 08N29W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 09N45W TO 09N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 16N41W TO 10N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-11N BETWEEN 19W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS ITS AXIS ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W. AT LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FROM A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 30N88W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 26N89W TO 21N91W. AT THIS LAST POINT..THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND CONTINUES TO 18N94W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 18N- 24N BETWEEN 90W-96W. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A GENTLE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILING N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE A LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE FRONT. EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO WEAKEN AND STALL AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETROGRADE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND DISSIPATE BY MID-WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 77W. TO THE E OF THIS...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HAITI NEAR 16N75W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NE OVER HISPANIOLA AND SW TO OVER NICARAGUA. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY E OF 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN N OF PANAMA ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-80W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN INCREASING THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND ENHANCING CONVECTION. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF HAITI EXTENDING ITS TROUGH ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THE CARIBBEAN. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS E OF THIS LOW WHICH IS ENHANCING CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN INCREASING MOISTURE AND ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLANTIC ANCHORED NEAR 31N72W WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N66W...A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N56W...AND ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N32W. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N67W TO 21N69W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA