000 AXNT20 KNHC 021137 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON NOV 02 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W FROM 10N-19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 55W-59W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N17W TO 10N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N21W TO 9N39W THEN RESUMES NEAR 8N41W TO 9N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING ALONG 39W/40W FROM 7N-13N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 25W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 4N- 10N BETWEEN 18W-38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 10W-15W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND FORT MYERS ALONG 23N87W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 17N94W. A SHARP UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO E TEXAS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE W OF LINE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST TO LAGUNA MADRE MEXICO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE W OF THIS LINE. A SHALLOW FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TO THE E BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA THEN BECOMES A WARM FRONT ACROSS EXTREME S ALABAMA INTO THE GULF NEAR THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW ALONG 23N91W OVER S MEXICO TO NEAR 18N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE FROM 27N89W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA NEAR PENSACOLA AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N BETWEEN 93W-95W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM MOBILE ALABAMA ALONG 24N90W TO MEXICO NEAR 19N95W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THIS EVENING THEN WILL RETROGRADE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF LINE FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED S OF HAITI NEAR 16N75W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NE OVER HISPANIOLA AND SW TO OVER NICARAGUA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N69W TO OVER HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 18N71W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-20N E OF 82W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 10N ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N E OF 78W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUE NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OF SW HAITI. THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL SHIFT W THROUGH EARLY WED WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY AND THEN THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 30N73W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E BEYOND 32N58W SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N67W. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N40W ALONG 26N52W TO 25N62W SUPPORTING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO 27N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS FROM 24N69W TO OVER HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 18N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 65W-74W INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES NEAR 31N29W. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL RETRACT SE ON TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OF NE FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL STALL EARLY WED THEN DRIFT W AND DISSIPATE BY THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW