000 AXNT20 KNHC 020543 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON NOV 02 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SW GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF W OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 21N BETWEEN 94.5W-97W. THIS WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 02/0600 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W FROM 10N-19N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 51W-54W AND FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 53W-57W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W TO 8N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N24W AND CONTINUES TO 6N37W THEN RESUMES NEAR 6N39W TO 5N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N22W TO 5N23W WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH FROM 11N38W TO 5N38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 17W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE HAS FINALLY MOVED E INTO THE W ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 25N85W THEN SW TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SHARP UPPER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER OKLAHOMA AND E TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS AND W LOUISIANA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE W OF LINE FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO LAGUNA MADRE MEXICO. A SHALLOW FRONTAL SYSTEM IS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1015 MB LOW OVER S GEORGIA ACROSS PENSACOLA FLORIDA INTO THE GULF TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 29N92W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW ALONG 23N93W TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 90W-97W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FAR W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AT SUNRISE ON MON. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUNRISE TUE BEFORE DRIFTING W ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ON TUE NIGHT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF LINE FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED S OF HAITI NEAR 16N74W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NE OVER HISPANIOLA AND SW TO OVER S NICARAGUA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 70W FROM 14N-21N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 13N BETWEEN 65W-80W INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES AND JAMAICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 10N ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N E OF 80W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE SW PENINSULA OF HAITI TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT W THROUGH EARLY WED WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 30N74W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E ACROSS BERMUDA AND SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N67W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N43W ALONG 26N57W TO 25N62W SUPPORTING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N57W TO 24N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 65W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH S-SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 32N31W. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E TO A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO FORT PIERCE FLORIDA ON MON THEN RETRACT SE ON TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OF NE FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM 31N79W TO 29N81W EARLY WED THEN DRIFT W AND DISSIPATE BY THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW