000 AXNT20 KNHC 011739 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EST SUN NOV 01 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 1500 UTC...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MAINLY S OF 21N W OF 95W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. FOR MORE DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N74W TO 10N55W...MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MOISTURE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 49W-56W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 16N17W ALONG 08N21W TO 07N28W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THIS LAST POINT TO 06N44W TO 10N61W. TWO AREAS OF ISOLATED CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED...THE FIRST IS BETWEEN 18W-35N AND THE OTHER IS W OF 56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED N OF W CUBA NEAR 25N83W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE GULF OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N96W WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE SE REACHING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL IN THE VICINITY OF THESE FEATURES AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS BETWEEN 87W- 95W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN WHILE A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER THE SW GULF. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 77W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE REACHING THE E-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY E OF 72W AFFECTING DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 20N67W TO 16N68W. THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN 77W-82W AFFECTING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE W ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. WITH THIS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAINLY E OF 71W. EXPECT FOR THIS TROUGH TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEREFORE...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WHOLE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLANTIC PREVAILING W OF 62W. TO THE E...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS DEVELOPED...REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N63W TO 30N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N67W TO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA MAINLY S OF 21N BETWEEN 64W-71W. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N31W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA