000 AXNT20 KNHC 011113 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN NOV 01 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SW GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT S OF 21N W OF 95W IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE W GULF. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W FROM 10N-17N MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 47W-57W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N16W ALONG 10N19W TO 7N28W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N41W 8N53W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 3W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 9W-23W AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 24W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED N OF W CUBA NEAR 25N84W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC AND INCLUDES THE SE CONUS. A COMPLEX BUT SHALLOW FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1009 MB LOW OFF GALVESTON TEXAS NEAR 29N94W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 26N95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW OVER S ALABAMA ACROSS PENSACOLA FLORIDA INTO THE GULF ALONG 29N89W TO THE 1008 MB LOW NEAR 26N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM OVER LOUISIANA NEAR ATCHAFALAYA BAY TO OVER MEXICO BETWEEN TAMPICO AND TUXPAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MON BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING IN THE E GULF MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE BEFORE RETROGRADING TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE S OF 21N W OF 95W THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF LINE FROM HAITI TO S NICARAGUA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA THEN ACROSS E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN THEN SW TO W PANAMA COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED BENEATH THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N64W THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 15N65W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N BETWEEN 63W- 69W TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE MONA PASSAGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N TO THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W-75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 65W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N E OF 80W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-80W AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 72W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THU. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE SW PENINSULA OF HAITI AND OVER THE FAR E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE ISLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N73W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF LINE FROM BERMUDA TO HAITI. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 34N72W. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N59W THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 21N68W THEN OVER THE FAR E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N61W TO 31N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N57W ALONG 27N60W TO 23N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 57W-70W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 22N57W TO 29N55W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR NE ATLC IS SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW INLAND OVER W AFRICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM S-SW OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E TO A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO FORT PIERCE FLORIDA ON MON THEN RETRACT E ON TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE NE FLORIDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW