000 AXNT20 KNHC 010600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN NOV 01 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SW GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT NEAR THE COAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W GULF. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W FROM 10N-18N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 46W-49W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N16W ALONG 8N21W TO 6N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N32W 6N43W 7N53W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 31W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 13W-25W AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 30W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF ANCHORED N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 25N86W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC INCLUDING THE SE CONUS. A COMPLEX BUT SHALLOW FRONTAL SYSTEM IS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1007 MB LOW NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS ALONG 26N96W TO 22N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E REACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN AND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MON BEFORE STALLING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MON NIGHT THEN DRIFTING W AND DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ON TUE. NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF VERACRUZ ON SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF LINE FROM HAITI TO S NICARAGUA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN THEN SW TO CENTRAL PANAMA COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED BENEATH THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N62W ACROSS THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 14N64W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 15N E OF 67W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO AND N OF 17N TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA BETWEEN 67W-78W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS HAITI AND SE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE ISLAND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N77W COVERING THE W ATLC W OF LINE FROM 32N67W TO HAITI. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N61W ALONG 25N65W THEN THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N62W TO 31N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N59W TO 24N61W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 56W-69W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR NE ATLC IS SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INLAND OVER MOROCCO AND WESTERN SAHARA INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 26N14W TO 22N26W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 23N38W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 260 NM S-SW OF THE AZORES. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E TO A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO FORT PIERCE FLORIDA ON MON THEN RETRACT E ON TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE NE FLORIDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW