000 AXNT20 KNHC 312356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE IS FORECAST TO START ON SUN 1800 UTC FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO S OF 21N AND W OF 95W. WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. SEAS TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N46W TO 09N47W...MOVING W 10 KT. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N17W TO 10N21W TO 07N27W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THIS LAST POINT TO 06N43W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 08N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 50W-54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR TRINIDAD FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 59W-64W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW OF HOUSTON TEXAS AT 29N96W TO N OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT 22N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE NE COAST OF TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA...N OF 28N BETWEEN 92W-96W. 15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10- 20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A GALE WARNING IS OUT FOR THE SW GULF IN 24 HOURS. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W TEXAS NEAR 31N104W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 24N85W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N94W WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER WESTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA ...AND PUERTO RICO...DUE TO AIRMASS HEATING. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 19N61W TO 14N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 60W-65W. ELSEWHERE ...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...S HONDURAS...AND SW GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING NE TO E FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT PREFRONTAL CONVECTION TO REACH THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ALL FRONTAL SYSTEMS OVER THE W ATLANTIC HAVE MOVED N OF 31N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N63W TO 27N66W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 28N59W TO 23N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 57W-62W. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N31W WITH FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N10W TO 24N20W TO 23N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ENHANCING CONVECTION. A VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF SPAIN SUPPORTING THE FRONT OVER THE E ATLANTIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES E. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO PERSIST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA