000 AXNT20 KNHC 311747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE NW GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N AND W OF 92W. THESE WINDS ARE PRODUCED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATED BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURES OVER S- CENTRAL U.S AND HIGHER PRESSURES ACROSS SE US AND E GULF. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N42W TO 10N44W...MOVING W 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N17W TO 09N20W TO 07N27W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THIS LAST POINT TO 05N42W TO 08N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN 17W-22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF ANCHORED N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N89W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE E GULF ANALYZED AS A WARM FRONT FROM 30N89W TO 26N84W ANS AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 26N82W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THESE BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT THE NW PORTION...WHERE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE E GULF TO MOVE N WHILE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE NW GULF WITH CONVECTION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE CRITERIA OVER THE W GULF BY SUNDAY EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 76W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND E CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N60W TO 13N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 61W-63W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-84W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WERE REPORTED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AS IT MOVES W. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC EXTENDING JUST TO THE N OF THE ISLAND. WHILE A WEAKER UPPER TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE PROXIMITY OF THESE FEATURES WILL ENHANCE SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO COVERS THE FAR W ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 73W. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM 27N80W TO 31N72W. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N69W TO 31N63W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THIS TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N31W. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR E PORTION OF THE BASIN FROM 24N31W TO 26N17W TO 31N10W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO DISSIPATE. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR E ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA