000 AXNT20 KNHC 311055 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NW GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS/N MEXICO IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW GULF GIVING THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 92W STRONG WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. THIS GALE WARNING WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. SW GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE GULF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W FROM 10N-16N MOVING W 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 8N21W TO 6N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N46W 8N54W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 10N W OF 3W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 27W-32W AND FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 43W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF ANCHORED N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N90W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N-NE TO OVER THE E CONUS. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE W GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND FORT MYERS INTO THE GULF ALONG 27N86W TO 28N89W WHERE IT BECOMES A WARM FRONT TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA NEAR ATCHAFALAYA BAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA W OF 90W AND E TEXAS N OF 28N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N-28N W OF 94W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N OVER THE NE GULF AS A WARM FRONT TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE NW GULF WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON STALLING AND DISSIPATING OVER THE E GULF MON AND MON NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE SW GULF SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 72W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DOT THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-18N E OF 74W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 10N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA AND INLAND OVER PANAMA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL PULSE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE ISLAND. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS TO JUST N OF THE ISLAND. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO JUST OVER THE ISLAND. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W ATLC WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC DIPS S TO JUST N OF HISPANIOLA SUPPORTING A DYING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N61W TO 28N69W AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO THE W THAT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 32N71W TO ACROSS FLORIDA FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 26N66W TO BEYOND 32N63W. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N59W IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N56W TO 12N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 18N...FROM 16N-18N W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 59W-62W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 27N58W TO 30N52W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N10W ACROSS THE EASTERN MOST CANARY ISLANDS TO 24N24W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 23N32W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH 300 NM SW OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC LATE MON NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW