000 AXNT20 KNHC 310605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH WWWW UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W FROM 9N-17N MOVING W 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW INDICATES THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 7N21W TO 6N30W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N36W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 10N40W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N50W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 11N E OF 8W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 18W-35W AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 47W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N- NE TO OVER THE E CONUS. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE W GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO 25N91W. THE SE SURFACE FLOW COUPLED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERATING N OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W OF 90W TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SE GULF EXTENDING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO 25N91W WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS TO 27N88W WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR ATCHAFALAYA BAY. THE E GULF IS DRY SO NO SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY LATER TODAY. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SE RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND SAT AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW WATERS ON SAT AFTERNOON. THIS NEW COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DOT THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 12N BETWEEN 62W-69W AND OVER HISPANIOLA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN LIMITING ANY OTHER SHOWERS. THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL DEVELOP WITHIN 90 NM OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT. STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS TO JUST N OF THE ISLAND AND PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER S OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W ATLC WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC DIPS S TO N OF HISPANIOLA SUPPORTING A DYING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W ALONG 29N68W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N73W TO ACROSS FLORIDA FLORIDA NEAR FORT PIERCE TO FORT MYERS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 64W-68W. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS CENTERED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N56W AND IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 55W-60W AND FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 59W-62W. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 26N58W TO 29N54W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS ANALYZED THROUGH 32N13W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 24N27W TO 25N39W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 29N44W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS TO A 1017 MB HIGH 28N63W. THE W ATLC REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT ON SAT WITH THE MERGED FRONT STALLING AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FROM 32N55W ALONG 26N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON SUN AND MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW