000 AXNT20 KNHC 300549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N35W TO 17N52W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT WITH A 1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 32W-38W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 32W-35W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 07N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N27W TO 12N33W TO 10N38W TO 05N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 22W-29W...AND FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 36W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE NE CONUS. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...ONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AS A COLD FRONT THEN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS A STATIONARY FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE OTHER FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO 28N89W THEN WESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N97W. THIS FRONT REMAINS PRECIPITATION-FREE WITH RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N89W IS PROVIDING MOSTLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS SE WINDS INCREASE W OF 90W WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FEATURES INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N62W TO 14N70W AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 11N63W TO 18N62 WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 60W-69W. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WEST OF 70W IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED S OF 12N DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 09N ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE EAST PACIFIC REGION. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS OVERALL WIND REGIME IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...HISPANIOLA... NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE AND RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NE CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N73W SW TO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 30N60W THAT SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N64W. WHILE LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING WITH THE LOW ITSELF...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS INDUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 58W-61W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N47W. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE RIDGE IS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 32N23W TO 28N40W TO 30N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN