000 AXNT20 KNHC 300007 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N33W TO AN EMBEDDED 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N34W TO 09N35W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KNOTS. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY MOIST AREA FROM 05N-17N BETWEEN 25W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 27W-35W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 09N20W TO 07N27W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N27W TO 11N32W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 11N36W AND EXTENDS TO 09N40W TO 08N48W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 05N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 12W-15W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 41W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 26N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 22N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. FURTHER NORTH...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 31N85W TO THE N GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N92W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO S TEXAS AT 27N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM S OF FRONT. A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N89W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF HIGH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WHILE CONVECTION FORMS OVER THE W GULF W OF 95W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER W CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA ...JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO...DUE TO AIRMASS HEATING. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA... COSTA RICA...CENTRAL NICARAGUA...W HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 62W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N68W ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. A WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF LOW. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N30W TO 29N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N60W ENHANCING SHOWERS. EXPECT THE FRONTS TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA