000 AXNT20 KNHC 281747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N28W 12N29W 07N32W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W...AND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 24W AND 29W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 19N50W 15N52W 10N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 55W/56W FROM 10N TO 16N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 07N20W 08N30W 08N38W AND 07N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 11W AND 14W...FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 22W AND 25W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ARE FROM 25N NORTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD. A COLD FRONT STILL IS INLAND...MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AT THIS TIME. A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...PASSING THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N80W IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO 25N83W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N86W JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF CUBA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A GULF OF MEXICO 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N92W...INTO INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 23N102W. ...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 28N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 22N68W...ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N71W...TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 73W/74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM VENEZUELA TO PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 64W AND 70W...AND FROM 12N TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 81W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE 28N65W-COLOMBIA 73W/74W TROUGH. PART OF THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE TROUGH...AND PART IS RELATED TO THE WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS PARTS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO...AND LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ABOUT 150 NM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...STARTING AROUND 18 HOURS INTO THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH THE TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FROM 70W WESTWARD. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FROM 70W EASTWARD...WITH AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL BE IN THE MONA PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N60W TO HISPANIOLA RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE 24 HOUR TIME PERIOD. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW/A RIDGE WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AGAIN FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WILL END WITH NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W 09N80W BEYOND 10N86W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 76W AND THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS INLAND IN COLOMBIA FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 28/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.43 IN BERMUDA...0.21 IN TRINIDAD...0.17 IN CURACAO...0.14 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.13 IN GUADELOUPE...0.03 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...0.02 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND 0.01 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS AND MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N65W TO 28N65W...TO 22N68W...ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N71W...TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 73W/74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N49W TO 30N57W... CURVING TO 26N61W AND 20N62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W..AND FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 62W AND 63W. WIDELY MODERATE FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 71W TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE BERMUDA-TO-27N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER-TO HISPANIOLA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 31N63W...TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 26N67W 22N67W TO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 53W AND 58W...FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS/OFFSHORE WATERS OF AFRICA. THE TROUGH IS FROM 180 NM TO 240 NM TO THE WEST OF AFRICA FROM NORTHERN SENEGAL NORTHWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 31N11W 29N19W 24N31W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 210 NM TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N37W. IT IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N23W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N41W TO 25N48W. 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