000 AXNT20 KNHC 281037 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N30W TO 15N28W MOVING W AT 5 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 25W-31W. REMAINING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 28W- 32W...AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 23W-28W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 10N20W TO 10N27W TO 06N34W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N34W TO 08N40W TO 08N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 43W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING THAT SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THESE TWO REGIONS. A 1002 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS EXTENDS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGIONS NEAR 30N84W TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SECONDARY FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED WEST OF THE MAIN FRONT AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA TO 26N92W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WEST OF THE FRONT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1014 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N93W. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED TO DRIFT E-NE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE FRONT EXITS THE BASIN TO THE EAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FEATURE INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N71W WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N66W TO A BASE OVER EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 07N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY S OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-72W. ANOTHER AREA OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OCCURRING SOUTH OF JAMAICA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 77W-81W. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE N-NE FLOW ALOFT WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS. THIS OVERALL WIND REGIME IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N71W. ISOLATED SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE ISLAND HOWEVER THE OVERALL TREND EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IS A FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO NE WINDS ALOFT...AND LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A WARM FRONT ANALYZED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. WHILE AN AREA OF DRIER AIR SKIRTS E-NE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FAR NORTHWESTERN SW NORTH ATLC WATERS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF 80W IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 73W-79W. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N65W THAT SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM NEAR 24N62W TO 29N58W TO 32N49W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 21N-32N BETWEEN 55W-65W...AND N OF 30N BETWEEN 47W-55W. THE SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF 32N BY LATE THURSDAY AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC. OTHERWISE... THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS...ONE CENTERED NEAR 29N41W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 31N29W. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE RIDGE IS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ANALYZED FROM 32N09W W-SW TO 24N24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN