000 AXNT20 KNHC 271727 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N26W TO 07N29W...MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 26W-31W...AND IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH MOISTURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 23W-30W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 09N23W TO 07N29W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 09N40W TO 11N49W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SE US CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A 1006 MB LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF FROM 30N87W TO 21N87W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ARE E OF THE COLD FRONT. FRESH W TO NW WINDS ARE WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE W TO NW WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED NM E OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE ONSHORE N FL BY WED AFTERNOON WITH ONLY THE SE CORNER OF THE GULF REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N87W AND EXTENDS TO BELIZE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO PANAMA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W...AND FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N...ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT SOUTHERLY MODERATE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED NM OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NW TO THE W OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SE US SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS OFFSHORE GA AND NW OVER THE W ATLC N OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION. THIS FRONT SUPPORTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS N OF 28N W OF 77W. A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N65W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SURFACE LOW THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY SUPPORTED BY THIS TROUGH HAS OPENED INTO A SURFACE TROUGH AND NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N69W TO 27N71W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST...EXTENDING FROM 29N58W TO 20N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 25N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 25N. TO THE SE...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N49W TO 11N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 13N. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N13W TO 26N25W TO 27N35W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 31N39W. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 60W...AND OFFSHORE N FL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO