000
AXNT20 KNHC 271040
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.
 
...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N29W TO 14N24W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. 
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE 700 MB TROUGH 
BETWEEN 24W-32W. REMAINING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH... 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 22W-31W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 
10N23W TO 07N29W TO 07N31W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N31W TO 09N37W TO 11N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N10W TO 
11N16W...AND FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 37W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY PROGRESSING OVER THE SE CONUS THIS MORNING IN SUPPORT OF 
A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W. THIS 
PARTIALLY OCCLUDED LOW EXTENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FAR 
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NE GULF NEAR 30N87W SOUTHWARD 
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE MIDDLE 
TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY OF AND EAST OF THE 
SHORTWAVE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED 
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N EAST OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE 
EASTERN GULF WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 24N...INCLUDING 
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...OVERCAST SKIES IN 
LOW STRATUS AND FOG WITH LOCALLY LIMITED VISIBILITIES ARE NOTED 
IN SHIP...BUOY...AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS N OF 26N BETWEEN 
87W-95W. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED EAST OF 
THE FRONT...WHILE GENTLE TO FRESH W-NW WINDS ARE OBSERVED WEST 
OF THE FRONT. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY THE FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE BASIN WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORING 
ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THEN MOVING NE THROUGH FRIDAY.    
                                      
CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              
THE MAIN FEATURE INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN IS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM NEAR 23N68W TO A BASE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 12N73W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY BETWEEN 63W-
72W...INCLUDING EASTERN HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...N-NE FLOW ALOFT WEST OF THE UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR 
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS 
MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS...OUTSIDE OF THE 
ACTIVE ONGOING CONVECTION. THIS WIND REGIME IS FORECAST TO 
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...                                               
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER EASTERN 
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS 
PREVAILING E OF 71W...INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE AND ADJACENT 
COASTAL WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 33N80W MOVING NE THIS MORNING. THE 
SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 34N70W SW TO THE 
GEORGIA AND FLORIDA BORDER NEAR 31N81W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OFFSHORE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 72W-79W. FARTHER EAST...AN 
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N68W THAT SUPPORTS 
A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 21N62W TO 28N59W. WHILE MOST OF 
THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED OVER THE NE 
CARIBBEAN SEA...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD EAST OF 
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 18N-30N BETWEEN 55W-67W. THIS AREA FALLS 
WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC 
AND CENTRAL ATLC. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED 
BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N41W. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE 
RIDGE IS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE RIDGE ANALYZED FROM 32N12W SW TO 27N26W TO 28N33W BECOMING 
STATIONARY TO BEYOND 32N40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
HUFFMAN