000 AXNT20 KNHC 262345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO N OF 27N BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS INTRODUCED TO THE 18Z MAP WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 10N25W TO 04N27W. TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THIS WAVE EMBEDDED IN A MOISTURE SURGE WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 22W-30W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO 07N52W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 06N29W AND CONTINUES TO 07N42W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 18W-22W AND 31W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER MISSISSIPPI SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE GULF NEAR 30N89W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N91W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT MAINLY E OF 86W AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS AND SE CONUS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING W OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E OVER THE EASTERN GULF. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY MAINLY WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FEATURE DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO BE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PREVAILING BETWEEN 63W-72W AFFECTING DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE E WITH CONVECTION PREVAILING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND AGAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING OFFSHORE ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WATERS MAINLY W OF 78W SUPPORTED BY A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N67W EXTENDS ITS TROUGH TO NEAR 33N63W SUPPORTING A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO 20N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 60W-69W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 13N46W TO 10N47W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N42W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING OUR AREA IN THE FAR E ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 31N35W TO 29N26W TO 31N18W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND TO THE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 66W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA