000
AXNT20 KNHC 261800
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 
N OF 26N BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND 
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE 
DETAILS. 
 
...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...   
                                  
THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES OVER THE EASTERN ATLC ALONG THE 
AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 10N22W TO 06N31W...WHERE THE ITCZ 
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 09N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 250 NM S AND 60 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
AN UPPER LOW OVER MISSISSIPPI SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS 
OVER THE GULF NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR 
29N89W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N91W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT FROM 24N TO 31N 
BETWEEN 83W AN 87W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR W OF 
THE FRONT N OF 26N UNTIL 1800 UTC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MAINLY FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY 
STRONG W TO NW WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE OVER THE W 
GULF. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG S TO SE WINDS COVER THE E 
GULF AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD 
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH FRESH 
TO STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY MAINLY WITHIN 300 NM E OF 
THE FRONT. 
                                          
CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              
THE MAIN FEATURE DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN 
CONTINUES TO BE AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE 
W ATLC TO HISPANIOLA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR COSTA RICA. NE 
FLOW ALOFT WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR INHIBITS CONVECTION 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN. ON THE EASTERN SIDE 
OF THE TROUGH...MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT AND FAVORABLE ASCENT 
SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 275 NM SE OF A 
LINE FROM 13N72W TO 18N67W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 11N E OF 79W. MAINLY MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE 
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. 
 
...HISPANIOLA...                                                
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING TO THE 
NE CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W. ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING MAINLY E OF 69W 
OVER THE ISLAND...NEAR THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND SURFACE TROUGH. 
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND AGAIN ON 
TUESDAY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N67W HAS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS 
NE TO NEAR 33N63W...AND SW TO HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER LOW SUPPORTS 
A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 26N67W WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY 
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 29N61W AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 
THE LOW S TO NEAR THE NE TIP OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 275 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE DISSIPATING 
STATIONARY FRONT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
TROPICAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 14N43W TO 10N44W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 
A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN ATLC IS ENTERING OUR AREA OF 
DISCUSSION FROM 32N31W TO 31N34W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITH THIS FRONT. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THIS COLD FRONT. 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST OF 
THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 65W AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
LATTO