000 AXNT20 KNHC 261058 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 998 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29.5N93W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N91W AND 18N94W. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY GALE- FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET N OF 26N TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 09N20W AND 06N24W 07N23W AND 05N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N27W TO 07N35W AND 07N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 19W OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN AN AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY THE POINTS FROM 10N20W TO 05N21W TO 04N33W TO 09N20W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 31W AND 33W...AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 51W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N41W 08N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 36W AND 45W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING THROUGH EAST TEXAS. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 89W AND 100W. THE ENTIRE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND A DEVELOPED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29.5N93W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE TRIPLE POINT THAT IS NEAR 31N91W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N93W TO 30N88W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N91 TO 28N89W 23N91W AND 18N94W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 17N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...TO A 27N67W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO HISPANIOLA...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THAT IS AWAY FROM THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ACCOMPANYING THE BERMUDA-TO- HISPANIOLA TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AT 30 TO 36 HOURS OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA SOLIDLY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF HISPANIOLA...AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE REST OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... AS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 84W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 76W AND THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS INLAND IN COLOMBIA FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE BERMUDA-TO-27N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER-TO HISPANIOLA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 31N63W...TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 26N67W 22N67W TO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 53W AND 58W...FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF AFRICA. THE TROUGH IS COMPARATIVELY NARROWER ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF IT IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF MOROCCO...AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE COAST OF SENEGAL AND ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT ITS SOUTHERN END. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N10W TO 31N09W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 11N NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 11N27W 21N17W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 56W. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N43W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT