000 AXNT20 KNHC 260604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N93W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N92W AND 18N93W. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY GALE- FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/ FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 09N20W AND 06N24W AND 05N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N30W TO 06N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 19W OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN AN AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY THE POINTS FROM 09N20W TO 04N21W TO 05N32W TO 09N20W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N40W 09N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W...AND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING THROUGH EAST TEXAS. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 89W AND 100W. THE ENTIRE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND A DEVELOPED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N93W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE TRIPLE POINT THAT IS NEAR 30N93W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N93W TO 30N88W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N93W TO 24N92W AND 18N93W AT THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N78W...TO 27N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 19N80W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...TO A 27N67W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO HISPANIOLA...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 77W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THAT IS AWAY FROM THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ACCOMPANYING THE BERMUDA-TO- HISPANIOLA TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...THE LAST OBSERVATION FROM 26/0000 UTC SHOWED SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE 26/0000 UTC OBSERVATION FOR BARAHONA SHOWED FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AFTER FOUR OBSERVATIONS OF RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER...ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN LA ROMANA AND IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...AFTER FIVE OBSERVATIONS OF RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER...ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS AND THEN A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...AFTER ONE OBSERVATION OF RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER...IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AT 30 TO 36 HOURS OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA SOLIDLY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF HISPANIOLA...AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE REST OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... AS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 10N80W... BEYOND 09N84W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 76W AND THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE BERMUDA-TO-27N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER-TO HISPANIOLA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 31N59W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N59W TO 25N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 25N65W TO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 53W AND 58W...FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 32N59W TO 24N63W...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N67W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF AFRICA. THE TROUGH IS COMPARATIVELY NARROWER ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF IT NEAR MOROCCO...AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE COAST OF SENEGAL AND ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT ITS SOUTHERN END. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N09W...TO 29N12W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 19W OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 23W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 56W. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N44W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT