000 AXNT20 KNHC 252341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER TX SUPPORTS A 999 MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N94W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S OF THE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS SEVERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED OVER THE NW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BEGINS ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N15W TO 06N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-14N AND E OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER TX SUPPORTS A 999 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 29N94W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 24N94W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N93W TO 18N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 85W-94W WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF 85W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE S AND E ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED AT ABOUT 350 NM E OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS EXTENDS ITS TROUGH S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-78W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS E OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 74W AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL AS THEIR ADJACENT WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO ACCOMPANIES THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM 15N71W TO 18N67W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND FROM THE SW ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS LIMITING CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW ATLANTIC NEAR 24N67W WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING SW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED JUST N OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 25N62W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS E OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 54W-61W. S OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF 22N BETWEEN 62W-68W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 14N40W TO 10N41W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF OUR AREA NEAR 32N41W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA