000 AXNT20 KNHC 251734 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER TX SUPPORTS A 998 MB LOW OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N95W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S OF THE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH SEVERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NW GULF OF 35 TO 40 KT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE W GULF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY MID MONDAY MORNING. SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/ FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 05N25W TO 07N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 14W AND 23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS...AND ALSO FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 16W AND 24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER TX SUPPORTS A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE NW GULF FROM 29N95W TO A 998 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N95W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 23N96W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N98W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N94W TO 18N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM E OF A LINE FROM 30N94W TO 20N96W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS COVER THE EASTERN GULF. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS COVER THE WESTERN GULF E OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S AND E TO THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE JUST E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS W OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NE FLOW COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...AND AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO HISPANIOLA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR COSTA RICA. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS INHIBITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE UPPER TROUGH AND AREAS EAST ARE UNDER MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION...AND WITH A MODERATELY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 17N63W TO 14N76W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH AND A NEARLY STATIONARY 1008 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N78W. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH E TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND FROM THE W ATLC TO SW CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS LIMITING CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA TODAY. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 25N66W WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING SW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND N TOWARD BERMUDA. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW JUST N OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 31N61W TO 25N61W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SURFACE TROUGH TO 20N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER A LARGE AREA FROM 19N TO 31N BETWEEN 54W AND 68W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 14N39W TO 10N40W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE IN THE REGION IS INTERACTING WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLC TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...AND WITHIN 100 NM OF A LINE FROM 11N28W TO 13N37W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 20N23W TO 18N25W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO