000 AXNT20 KNHC 251124 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 994 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 22N98W. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 10 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. NW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/ FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND...PASSING THROUGH GUINEA... AND STOPPING AT THE COAST. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 06N15W 05N24W AND 06N35W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 15N BETWEEN 15W AND 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 06N TO 07N BETWEEN 29W AND 33W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 36W/37W FROM 10N TO 15N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 36W...AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 38W AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM 04N TO 08N IN THE SCATTEROMETER WIND FIELD. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...FROM SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO. A 994 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N96W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N79W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA NEAR 18N75W. ...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 24N68W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO HISPANIOLA...TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 81W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THAT IS AWAY FROM THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ACCOMPANYING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- HISPANIOLA TROUGH. CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AT 30 TO 36 HOURS OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA SOLIDLY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF HISPANIOLA...AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. PURELY CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR DAY TWO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 09N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 08N82W IN PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 75W AND THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N66W-TO-24N68W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER-TO HISPANIOLA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N59W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N61W AND 23N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 23N62W TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO...AND INTO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 15N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W...AND ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N16W NEAR THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 33W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N10W TO 31N14W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N20W 20N23W 17N29W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N40W...TO 25N49W...TO THE AREA OF MARTINIQUE AND SAINT LUCIA IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT