000 AXNT20 KNHC 250601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 12-HOUR FORECAST...BASED ON THE SYNOPSIS THAT IS VALID AT 25/0000 UTC...CONSISTS OF A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 29N95W...AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 19N95W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 9 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE 18-HOUR FORECAST ALSO CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/ FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 06N20W AND 05N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N24W TO 05N30W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 02N TO 13N BETWEEN 14W AND 33W... AND FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 37W FROM 10N TO 15N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 37W AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 49W/50W FROM 10N TO 14N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPINS AWAY FROM THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...NEAR THE AREA WHERE PATRICIA MADE LANDFALL. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AS A STATIONARY FRONT...TO A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27.5N 96.5W...CONTINUING AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE 1004 MB LOW CENTER...INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR 25N99W...AND NORTHWESTWARD TO 28N104W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N94W 26N95W 22N98W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN GENERAL ALSO COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE MIDDLE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...ALONG 80W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 20N80W. ...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 24N68W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO HISPANIOLA...TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 82W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THAT IS AWAY FROM THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ACCOMPANYING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- HISPANIOLA TROUGH. CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...THE OBSERVATION FOR 25/0000 UTC SHOWED FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE OBSERVATION FOR 25/0000 UTC FOR BARAHONA SHOWED RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AT 30 TO 36 HOURS OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA SOLIDLY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF HISPANIOLA...AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. PURELY CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR DAY TWO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 11N78W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND 09N84W IN SOUTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N66W-TO-24N68W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER-TO HISPANIOLA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W...TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N60W... TO 26N61W AND 24N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 24N62W TO 20N65W...CUTTING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO...INTO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 29N70W AND 29N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 32N BETWEEN 52W AND 69W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 20N33W 27N42W BEYOND 32N46W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N16W NEAR THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 33W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N11W TO 31N14W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N20W 20N23W 17N29W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 29N44W AND 17N50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT