000 AXNT20 KNHC 242351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N13W ALONG 6N16W TO 5N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 5N36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-12N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 15W-23W. SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICS ALONG 36W/37W FROM 9N-14N WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 30W-35W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE TROPICS IS FROM 14N49W TO 11N50W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 46W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N98W AND EXTENDING THE RIDGE AXIS NE TO OVER THE E CONUS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SHARP SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS ACCOMPANIED BY A COMPLEX SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY INLAND OVER TEXAS AND CONSISTS OF A FRONT...AND SURFACE LOW AND WITH THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA FROM THE E PACIFIC PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. OVER THE GULF WATERS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-26N W OF 96W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA ALONG 26N94W TO 23N96W. SE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 23N W OF 85W. THE LOW INLAND OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN INLAND OVER LOUISIANA EARLY MON. THIS WILL PRODUCE NEAR GALE OR MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NW AND N/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUN. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF MID WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO JUST E OF PUERTO RICO GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N E OF 67W TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND E TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WILL SHIFT E SUN AND BECOME DIFFUSE THEN DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH MON. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH MON NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC TO JUST E OF PUERTO RICO CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUN THEN DIMINISHING FROM W TO E AS THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SHIFT E. THEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN DRIFT W OF MON BRINGING THE MOISTURE BACK MON NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 31N61W THROUGH A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 25N61W TO JUST E OF PUERTO RICO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 20N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN 60W-67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROAD AREA FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN 52W-61W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE FRONT FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 64W-70W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 53W ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT E SUN AND BECOME DIFFUSE THEN DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW