000 AXNT20 KNHC 240601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 05N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N19W TO 04N26W 08N36W AND 09N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 23W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N32W 12N35W 10N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 31W AND 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N45W 12N46W 09N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPINS AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE PATTERS THAT NOW IS INLAND IN MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 95W AND THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA...RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N67W-TO 13N66W CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE SOUTHERN END OF A DISSIPATING ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT REACHES SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 64W AND 81W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 15N60W 13N72W 10N80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N73W 11N80W...BEYOND COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 76W AND 79W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF URABA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 11N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 66W AND 69W. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 24N67W...TO THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 13N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SOUTHERN END OF A DISSIPATING ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT REACHES SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 64W AND 81W. CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE EVENTUAL ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH WILL BE ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH...OR A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S.A. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE 32N67W-TO-13N66W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 28W AND 57W. ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 21N43W 15N48W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N55W 19N54W 15N50W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 18N NORTHWARD FROM 30W EASTWARD. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W...TO A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT 29N62W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...TO 24N63W AND 21N64W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 21N64W TO SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N39W 19N49W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 600 NM TO 720 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL GEORGIA NEAR 31N81W...TO 26N80W ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA... ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 17N70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT