000
AXNT20 KNHC 220521
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...   
                                  
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N17W TO 
A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N28W TO ANOTHER 1012 MB LOW NEAR 09N46W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN 18W-44W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 
                                             
AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF AND 
YUCATAN WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS NNE ACROSS THE BASIN. AT THE 
SURFACE...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N95W WITH A TROUGH 
AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N96W. THE COMBINATION 
OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE ANTICYCLONE...CONVERGENCE 
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS IS SUPPORTING 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 25N AND W OF 90W...WHILE 
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED SURROUNDING THE LOW CENTER S OF 
23N AND W OF 91W. DRY AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN 
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE  
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF EXCEPT E OF THE 
SURFACE TROUGH WHERE WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL. OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY W OF 95W. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO EXTENDS 
SE COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 75W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N67W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE 
EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...THE TAIL END OF A 
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO W CUBA 
SUPPORTS ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY N 
OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF 
CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS 
GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT 
CARIBBEAN WATERS E OF 63W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE MOVING W WITH 
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE E CARIBBEAN.
                                        
...HISPANIOLA...  
                                              
A STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE ISLAND IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND 
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG 
THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE ISLAND WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 
                                             
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A 
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 21N75W 
TO A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N65W TO 31N54W. SCATTERED LIGHT 
TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 200 NM OF EITHER SIDE 
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY AT ABOUT 
20 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 15N60W TO 12N61W. 
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH ENTERING THE E 
CARIBBEAN. THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE 
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 36N36W. A 1012 MB 
LOW LOCATED NEAR 31N20W EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 27N21W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 27N BETWEEN 20W-
24W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N WITH CONVECTION AFFECTING THE W-
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 

ERA