000 AXNT20 KNHC 211748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 14N23W INTO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 11N28W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 10N46W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N46W TO 09N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-18N BETWEEN 17W-28W...AND FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 28W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES THE GULF REMAINING ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N96W. AT THE SURFACE...A SHALLOW TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW GULF FROM A 1010 MB LOW NEAR19N94W TO 23N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 19N W OF 93W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 90W-96W. OTHERWISE...THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SE CONUS NEAR 36N83W AT 1029 MB. THE FRESH EASTERLIES WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INFLUENCES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 76W PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR SKIES. HOWEVER THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE SW BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N77W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 18N BETWEEN 73W-80W. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND S OF 10N...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF PANAMA. W OF 76W...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N67W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT PROMOTING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...TRADES REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF NW VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ALONG 22N NORTH OF THE ISLAND IS CONTINUING TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY...HIGH PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT IS SLOW TO DISSIPATE. BY THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL TROUGHING LINGERING IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL ATLC WATERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 36N66W SW TO A BASE NEAR 26N76W THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N53W SW TO 23N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 53W-63W...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...RIDGING PREVAILS. ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N83W IS PROVIDING FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES NEAR 40N28W S-SW TO 22N44W WITH GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW OCCURRING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING. FINALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N21W THAT SUPPORTS A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 33N16W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO 28N22W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 19W- 24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN