000 AXNT20 KNHC 200526 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO...LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...AND A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WATERS IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE N TO NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ...MAINLY S OF 21N W OF 95W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING HOURS. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 08N25W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 10N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-17N BETWEEN 17W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-13N BETWEEN 31W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N87W TO 25N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 23N97W TO 18N94W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF IT AFFECTING THE SE COAST OF MEXICO. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN WHILE A GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF EXCEPT THE SW GULF WATERS S OF 21N AND W OF 95W WHERE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN WEAKENING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA COVERING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN WHILE AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS NE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 21N86W TO 17N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH MAINLY W OF 83W SUPPORTED BY A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A SIMILAR DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ALSO NOTED OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN INHIBITING CONVECTION EXCEPT DIURNAL ACTIVITY OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN AS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE MORE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NW ATLC CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUPPORT TO A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 25N79W TO 31N53W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS SE OF THE COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM 23N61W TO 31N53W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAIL ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 50W. TO THE S...A SURFACE TROUGH IS AT ABOUT 330NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 15N55W TO 10N55W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION E OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 44W-53W. FURTHER E...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC REACHING NW AFRICA FROM 24N29W TO 24N16W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 32N E OF 15W DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC AS IT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA