000 AXNT20 KNHC 191802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE PART OF THE FORECASTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N SOUTHWARD FROM 94W WESTWARD...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 12 FEET. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER HSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE MORE INFORMATION. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 20N SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICO COAST BETWEEN 93W AND 94.5W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 22N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N09W IN MOROCCO...TO 30N11W 25N23W AND 27N30W. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS WITHIN 420 NM TO THE WEST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 15N NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 22W. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II...ON THE WEBSITES WWW.METEO.FR...OR WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM...FOR THE SECTION THAT IS CALLED CASABLANCA. THE CURRENT FORECAST CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THAT AREA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W...TO 14N19W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER 09N25W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 09N25W TO 08N26W...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N31W...TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N40W...AND TO 11N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 38W...AND FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 20W AND 32W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 53W/54W FROM 10N TO 15N. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 11.5N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 18N BETWEEN 43N TO 52W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 27N70W...THROUGH THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 25N TO 26N... TO 24N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 24N88W AND IT CONTINUES TO 22N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N56W 27N61W 24N67W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 27N60W TO 23N66W 23N81W 17N93W... AND ELSEWHERE IN MEXICO FROM 21N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 27N61W TO 20N73W. IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 26N92W 24N90W 21N97W. IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W IN THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE 27N83W 27N87W 25N91W 22N97W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N92W 21N96W 24N97W. THE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH IN ORDER TO HELP TO PRODUCE GALE- FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 1.49 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...0.43 IN MERIDA MEXICO...0.18 IN ACAPULCO...0.06 IN BERMUDA...AND 0.02 IN TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 73W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 73W EASTWARD. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRST PARAGRAPH IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N53W-TO- SOUTHEASTERN COLOMBIA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 1.24 IN MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA...0.05 IN ST. THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...0.01 IN GUADELOUPE AND IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE CENTRAL AMERICA-TO-CUBA RIDGE. CURRENT WEATHER...IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO...IN LA ROMANA...AND IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT CENTRAL AMERICA-TO-CUBA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWESTERLY-TO- NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON TOP OF JAMAICA AND IT WILL CONTINUE THERE FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO...AN ATLANTIC OCEAN/BAHAMAS ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL SEND NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF HISPANIOLA AT THE SAME TIME. THE LAST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERING THE WESTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB CONSISTS OF VARIABLE BUT MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS...FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...AND THEN PURELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 25N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N57W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N63W...ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF VENEZUELA...INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 420 NM TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND WITHIN 240 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 55W AND 63W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N43W 26N49W 22N55W 19N67W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT