000 AXNT20 KNHC 161940 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 CORRECTED FOR THE HISPANIOLA SECTION TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE PART OF THE FORECASTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. WILL STRENGTHEN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THIS WEEKEND. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR IN 24 HOURS...FROM 18.5N TO 21N WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...NEAR VERACRUZ...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER HSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE MORE INFORMATION. A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N19W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT THAT IS RELATED TO THE 1002 MB LOW CENTER PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 23N20W 20N26W 19N33W 22N43W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. THIS IS RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II...ON THE WEBSITES WWW.METEO.FR...OR WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM...FOR THE SECTIONS THAT ARE CASABLANCA AND AGADIR. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. NOT ALL THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THIS AREA IS RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. SOME OF IT IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 80W AND 88W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 09N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 11N78W TO 12N81W TO 14N82W. LAND INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SOME LIMITED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY IF THIS FEATURE EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE WEEKEND. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES COASTAL SECTIONS OF GAMBIA AND SENEGAL ALONG 13N/14N BETWEEN 16W AND 17W...TO 12N25W AND 08N33W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 08N33W 06N42W 04N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 03N TO 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 42W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES ACROSS BERMUDA...TO 29N70W...AND THEN PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA. THE FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO 24N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N86W 24N93W 20N97W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER TROUGH IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LINE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE 30N86W 20N97W LINE...INCLUDING ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 70W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 70W EASTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 60W FROM 11N TO 17N. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD STEADILY DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 17N WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 60W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION THAT IS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 85W/86W TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND INLAND IN THOSE COUNTRIES. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.89 IN VERACRUZ IN MEXICO...0.54 IN GUADELOUPE...0.10 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...0.09 IN TRINIDAD AND TEGUCIGALPA...0.04 IN BERMUDA... AND 0.01 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS COVERING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS... BRINGING MORE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA. RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF CARIBBEAN SEA TO CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...SENDING NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT GENERAL EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW WILL VARY FROM NORTHEAST-TO-EAST OR FROM THE EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST FOR DAY ONE. DAY TWO WILL SEE AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MOVE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...AND THEN IT ULTIMATELY WILL MOVE WESTWARD...SENDING NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL CONSIST OF EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN- TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N58W. LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 420 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N52W 21N57W 07N66W IN VENEZUELA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...ALONG 50W FROM 25N TO 30N. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD WITH TIME DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT