000 AXNT20 KNHC 151041 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N42W TO 8N45W DRIFTING W OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 700 MB STREAMLINES SHOWS THE WAVE WITHIN A WELL DEFINED INVERTED TROUGH AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE SURGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 37W-44W AND FROM 10N- 14N BETWEEN 45W-49W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W/73W FROM 18N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N17W ALONG 8N28W 7N35W TO 10N40W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N46W ALONG 10N52W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST N OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 11N53W TO 18N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 11W-21W...FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 17W-19W... WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 12N27W 15N21W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR DAKAR SENEGAL...AND 13N-16N BETWEEN 50W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE E CONUS INTO NW ATLC IS MOVING OUT OF THE GULF LEAVING A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 95W FROM 27N TO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A WEAKENING FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE GULF NEAR SARASOTA ALONG 26N89W TO OVER MEXICO JUST S OF MATAMOROS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE GULF N OF 26N LIMITING ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SE GULF. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE FROM THE 25N80W JUST S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 22N92W TO S MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE N GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A 1020 MB HIGH OVER MISSOURI. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GULF WILL STRENGTHEN NE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SW ATLC ANCHORED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N82W. A SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W ALONG 18N86W TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 23N W OF 82W TO OVER W CUBA...THE YUCATAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 75W-82W AND FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 78W-84W. THIS IS LEAVING MOST OF THE E CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING ACTIVITY WILL MOVE W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH LATE FRI. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EACH NIGHT THROUGH SAT. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS DOT THE SKIES OVER THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SAT GIVING THE ISLAND A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND NW ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N75W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE WHERE IT CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A STATIONARY FRONT. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N70W ALONG 28N75W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 28N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE AREA N OF 27N W OF 74W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC S OF 27N W OF 63W WITH A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 27N65W TO BEYOND 32N54W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 TO 120 NM ON A LINE FROM 23N75W TO 32N65W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC TO 24N BETWEEN 16W-34W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N20W ALONG 24N27W TO 26N40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BETWEEN THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH ABOUT 600 NM W OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY AND WEAKEN. A STRONG HIGH MOVING INTO THE SE CONUS THIS WEEKEND WILL REINFORCE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW