000 AXNT20 KNHC 150555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 45W FROM 8N- 17N MOVING W 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 700 MB STREAMLINES SHOWS THE WAVE WITHIN AN INVERTED TROUGH AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE SURGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 37W-47W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W/73W FROM 19N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N17W ALONG 6N30W TO 9N40W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS ALONG 10N FROM 46W TO 59W WITH A BREAK NEAR 52W/53W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N53W TO 15N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 10W-21W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 20W-30W AND FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 50W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE E CONUS AND NW ATLC IS MOVING OUT OF THE GULF BUT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN TITUSVILLE AND TAMPA INTO THE GULF ALONG 26N87W TO 26N93W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE GULF N OF 26N LIMITING ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER IN THE SW CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SE GULF. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE FROM THE 25N80W JUST S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 23N86W TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 21N90W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE N GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A 1018 MB HIGH OVER W MISSISSIPPI/NE LOUISIANA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE BY THU ALONG 26N. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SW ATLC ANCHORED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N82W. A SHALLOW SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 85W/86W FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 18N TO INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA W OF 74W AND FROM 13N-18N W OF 81W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N/11N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 72W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS LEAVING MOST OF THE E CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING ACTIVITY WILL MOVE W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THU. THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE ISLAND TONIGHT. INCREASE MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK GIVING THE ISLAND A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND NW ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N76W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR TITUSVILLE. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N71W ALONG 27N76W THEN W OVER FLORIDA BETWEEN MIAMI AND FORT LAUDERDALE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE AREA N OF 28N W OF 74W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC S OF 27N W OF 63W WITH A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 27N70W TO BEYOND 32N53W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ON A LINE FROM 25N72W TO 32N66W AND N OF 31N BETWEEN 69W-71W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC TO 24N BETWEEN 17W-36W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N22W ALONG 26N25W TO 25N35W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 27N44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BETWEEN THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH ABOUT 700 NM W OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THU NIGHT THEN BECOMING STATIONARY FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND SE FLORIDA FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW