000 AXNT20 KNHC 150004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED FOR THE 14/1200 UTC MAP ANALYSIS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 19N IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD...TO LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W...AND IN EASTERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS OCCURRING IN PARTS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO...AND THE WESTERN PUERTO RICO COASTAL WATERS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W TO 14N22W 07N30W AND 09N40W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN 44W AND 58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY THE POINTS 05N19W 11N27W 13N19W 05N19W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 42W AND 62W. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION ALSO IS OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF BROAD AND LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- FLORIDA-TO-GULF OF MEXICO-MEXICO COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT. THE TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN U.S.A....CROSSING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO 26N92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM 26N92W TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...AND NORTHWESTWARD TO 31N107W IN NORTHERN INTERIOR MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N72W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO 26N82W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W 28N77W 26N87W 24N97W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N69W 26N72W 24N76W...AND SOUTH OF 24N80W 24N85W 22N90W. IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 92W AND THE MEXICO COAST...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION THAT IS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 71W/72W TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES ALONG 85W/86W FROM 22N IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO COASTAL HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 73W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 70W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 66W EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 76W EASTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 1.75 IN ACAPULCO...0.49 IN TEGUCIGALPA...0.33 IN BERMUDA...0.25 IN GUADELOUPE...0.19 IN MONTERREY MEXICO...0.11 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...0.10 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...0.09 IN ST.THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND 0.08 IN TRINIDAD. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MIXED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA...AND FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. PUNTA CANA ALSO IS REPORTING SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF CARIBBEAN SEA TO CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...SENDING NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM 28N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...SENDING EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW INVERTED TROUGHS ALSO WILL PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTERING THE WIND DIRECTIONS ACCORDINGLY. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N48W. LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR NORTHWARD TO 28N...INCLUDING THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH AMERICA...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 37W AND 66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N56W 24N58W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 16W AND 40W. THIS IS RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND A COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT ARE PASSING THROUGH 32N24W 26N30W 26N36W 27N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT