000 AXNT20 KNHC 141731 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N43W TO 08N43W. THIS WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED AFTER A CAREFUL ANALYSIS OF HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS...SATELLITE ESTIMATED WINDS...OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE. AT THIS TIME...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS 09N-19N BETWEEN 36W-45W. 69W-71W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE E-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N70W TO 13N71W...MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE BETWEEN 67W-71W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 14N BETWEEN 69W-71W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W TO 07N29W TO 09N36W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N48W TO 10N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-18N AND E OF 31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E CONUS...W ATLANTIC AND INTO THE E GULF ACROSS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N83W TO 26N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE GULF N OF THE FRONT. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE SW COAST OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W GULF WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SE PORTION OF THE BASIN. THESE RIDGES ARE PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT FLOW THAT IS GENERATING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY S OF 23N. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW N OF THE FRONT WHILE A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW PREVAILS S OF THE FRONT. AN AREA OF LIGHT TO GENTLE NE FLOW ISOLATED ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAINLY W OF 90W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY S AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 15N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EXTENDS S ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 22N86W TO 18N86W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION W OF 80W. THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION IF THE BASIN IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 13N BETWEEN 74W-80W. TO THE E...A TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY S OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 15N BETWEEN 66W-74W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING W WITH CONVECTION. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING S OF THE ISLAND. DESPITE THE FACT THAT CURRENTLY NO CONVECTION IS OBSERVED...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE W AND MOISTURE INCREASES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND W ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N81W TO 32N78W. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT HAS TRANSFORMED INTO A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N80W TO 31N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS BETWEEN 64W-77W. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 28N56W TO 25N57W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. A FRONTAL SYSTEM PREVAILS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N46W TO 26N40W AND AS A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 32N26W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE FRONTS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN BETWEEN THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH LOCATED AT ABOUT 650 NM W OF THE AZORES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC WHILE WEAKENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA