000 AXNT20 KNHC 141045 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 43W FROM 8N- 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 700 MB STREAMLINES SHOWS THE WAVE WITHIN AN INVERTED TROUGH AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 36W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W FROM 19N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 66W-69W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 7N29W 11N38W TO 11N42W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 10N45W ALONG 9N52W TO 9N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA S OF 11N W OF 11W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-15N BETWEEN 17W-29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 36W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E CONUS AND W ATLC INTO THE GULF ACROSS NE FLORIDA ALONG 24N92W THEN S INTO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT AT 14/0900 UTC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS SE GEORGIA INTO THE GULF NEAR PANAMA CITY ALONG 28N90W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS JUST S OF CORPUS CHRISTI. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE GULF N OF THE FRONT. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE SW COAST OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W GULF WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SE GULF. THE UPPER RIDGES ARE PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS ALONG 23N86W TO 21N92W AND ALONG THE W GULF COAST FROM 19N-23N W OF 95W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 25N89W. THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MONRING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY S TODAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 17N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 21N85W ACROSS THE TIP OF NE HONDURAS/NE NICARAGUA TO 11N81W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 20N82W ALONG 12N80W TO OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 20N TO THE S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 80W-85W AND S OF 18N W OF 85W. ACTIVITY IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING ACTIVITY WILL MOVE W INTO CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THU. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT/EARLY THU WITH THE APPROACH OF THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE GIVING THE ISLAND A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY INLAND OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF NORTH CAROLINA TO GEORGIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A REMNANT DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N69W ALONG 28N75W THEN OVER S FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC TO 27N BETWEEN 24W-37W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N28W ALONG 29N33W TO 28N40W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 28N46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BETWEEN THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH ABOUT 600 NM W OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. THE COLD FRONT INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST LATE TONIGHT THEN WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD N OF 29N ON TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW