000 AXNT20 KNHC 140554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 41W/42W FROM 9N-18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 700 MB STREAMLINES SHOWS THE WAVE WITHIN AN INVERTED TROUGH AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 36W-42W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W FROM 19N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 64W-69W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W ALONG 7N24W 11N31W TO 10N40W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 9N43W ALONG 8N57W TO 10N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 9N25W TO 13N17W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 20W-26W AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 31W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 42W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE GULF NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO 22N94W SUPPORTING A DRY COLD FRONT AT 14/0300 UTC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS S ALABAMA... S MISSISSIPPI AND SE LOUISIANA ENTERING THE GULF NEAR VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA ALONG 29N95W THEN INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE N GULF N OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE SW COAST OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W GULF WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN COVERS THE SE GULF. A REMNANT DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS OVER S FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND NAPLES THEN ALONG 24N84W TO THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN NEAR 21N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM OF THIS FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 25N95W. THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY S TO ALONG 26N BY THU MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 16N74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM W CUBA NEAR 22N84W ACROSS NE HONDURAS/NE NICARAGUA TO 13N83W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 17N82W TO OVER PANAMA/COLOMBIA NEAR 9N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 79W-87W. ACTIVITY IN THE E CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WED. THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE IN THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER IN THE EVENING ARE STARTING TO CLEAR. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU WITH THE APPROACH OF THE E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE GIVING THE ISLAND A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 70W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N69W ALONG 28N73W THEN W ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM E OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 75 NM W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N31W ALONG 29N38W TO 28N46W AND A SURFACE TROUGH THE E ALONG 25W/26W BETWEEN 25N-32N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM OF BOTH THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BETWEEN THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH ABOUT 650 NM W OF THE AZORES. THE W ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST LATE TONIGHT THEN WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E TO N OF 29N ON WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW