000 AXNT20 KNHC 140002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 35W AND 41W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE LATEST GFS 700 MB STREAMLINES AND COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE TPW IMAGERY. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD IN GUATEMALA... INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE IN GUATEMALA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 08N26W AND TO 10N38W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 09N/10N BETWEEN 42W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY THE POINTS 05N19W 11N27W 13N19W 05N19W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 50W...AND FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. NUMEROUS STRONG IS INLAND IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF SIERRA LEONE...AND FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 11W AND 17W...IN PARTS OF GUINEA...GUINEA- BISSAU...GAMBIA...AND IN SENEGAL. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.A. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 84W AND 97W ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST...AND TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 28N81W IN FLORIDA...23N90W...20N96W AT THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS CUTTING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LOUISIANA INTO PARTS OF EAST TEXAS. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY IN EAST TEXAS...AND IT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...INTO MEXICO AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND...ALL THE WAY TO THE FAR WEST OF TEXAS. THE 3-DAY FORECAST FOR THE COLD FRONT IS FOR IT TO BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS...TO BE NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA AT 48 HOURS...AND TO BECOME STATIONARY AT THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA AT 72 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN COASTAL MEXICO...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 20N NORTH TO THE TEXAS BORDER FROM 100W EASTWARD TO THE COAST. WEAKENING PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FROM 25N/26N ALONG 81W TOWARD THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N... AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N91W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION THAT IS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 63W/64W TROPICAL WAVE. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES ALONG 22N82W 17N84W 13N82W...IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W...AND FROM NICARAGUA INTO HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 70W EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.63 IN KINGSTON IN JAMAICA...0.46 IN TRINIDAD...0.37 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.26 IN HAVANA...0.24 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA... 0.16 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...0.12 IN BERMUDA...0.07 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...0.03 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.01 IN ST. THOMAS ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD HISPANIOLA. NORTHWESTERLY-TO-NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 28N60W-TO-SOUTHEASTERN CUBA RIDGE...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO THAT WAS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. THE TROUGH CURRENTLY IS BEING REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. A SHALLOW COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 30N72W AND 27N76W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 27N76W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 25N/26W ALONG 81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM CUBA TO 28N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W... INCLUDING IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 29N73W TO 30N70W 31N67W 32N66W AND 33N65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 25N37W AND 22N42W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 30N38W AND 30N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 50W FROM 25N TO 31N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N24W 27N25W 25N36W 25N55W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 26N60W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N22W 29N23W 27N25W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 24W AND 27W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT