000 AXNT20 KNHC 131044 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 39W/40W FROM 7N-16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 700 MB STREAMLINES SHOWS THE WAVE WITHIN AN INVERTED TROUGH AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 31W-37W AND FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 37W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 17N57W TO 9N60W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 700 MB STREAMLINES SHOWS THE WAVE WITHIN A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 58W-63W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 85W S OF 19N TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W NEAR 5 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 700 MB STREAMLINES SHOWS THE WAVE WITHIN A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF A MOISTURE SURGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 81W-85W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W ALONG 8N19W TO 9N29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 12W- 20W...FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 18W-22W...AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 21W- 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N85W OVER THE YUCATAN TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 16N95W. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OFF THE SW COAST OF MEXICO COVERING MEXICO AND MOST OF TEXAS TO OVER THE W GULF W OF 93W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS ALL OF THE GULF EXCEPT WHERE THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW GULF. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N79W ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA TO OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR CANCUN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH A 1013 MB HIGH NEAR 27N88W. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF THIS EVENING THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE E/CENTRAL GULF WED. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 18N80W TO OFF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA NEAR 10N77W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 15N75W TO JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 75W-81W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 9N/10N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA. ACTIVITY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND. DAYTIME HEATING WITH ANY LINGERING MOISTURE COULD GIVE THE ISLAND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON THU WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE GIVING THE ISLAND A GREATER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N72W TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE W EXTENDING FROM 31N77W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N72W TO BEYOND 32N66W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 70W WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 32N53W AND A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 28N37W. THE W ATLC STATIONARY FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT SE AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TONIGHT THEN WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E TO N OF 29N ON WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW