000 AXNT20 KNHC 130535 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 38W FROM 7N- 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 700 MB STREAMLINES SHOWS THE WAVE WITHIN AN INVERTED TROUGH AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 29W-37W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 17N56W TO 9N57W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 700 MB STREAMLINES SHOWS THE WAVE WITHIN A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE SURGE. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 84W/85W S OF 19N TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MOVING W 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 700 MB STREAMLINES SHOWS THE WAVE WITHIN A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF A MOISTURE SURGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 80W- 84W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W ALONG 8N19W 8N25W TO 10N32W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 11N-14N AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 9N23W TO 8N26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 13W-27W AND FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 17W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO OVER THE YUCATAN AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OFF THE SW COAST OF MEXICO COVERING MEXICO AND MOST OF TEXAS MOVING OVER THE FAR W GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS ALL OF THE GULF EXCEPT WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC NEAR 25N79W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA TO OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR CANCUN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH A 1013 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W. THIS IS GIVING THE GULF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF TUE NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE BY WED NIGHT. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 18N79W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 15N77W TO 17N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 11N-21N BETWEEN 73W-79W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 10N/11N GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA E OF 80W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN TUE AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE FAR W DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. DAYTIME HEATING WITH ANY LINGERING MOISTURE COULD GIVE THE ISLAND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON THU WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE GIVING THE ISLAND A GREATER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 71W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N72W TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 27N78W WHERE IT DISSIPATES OVER S FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE W EXTENDING FROM 31N76W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR TITUSVILLE. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N72W TO BEYOND 32N69W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 74W-78W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 70W WITH A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS LOCATED NEAR 32N54W AND 30N49W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DRIFT SE AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE W WILL MOVE SLOWLY E THROUGH TUE THEN DISSIPATE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS TUE REACHING FROM NEAR 32N78W TO NE FLORIDA EARLY WED THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 32N72W TO THE NW BAHAMAS TO SE FLORIDA BY WED NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW