000 AXNT20 KNHC 122349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 17N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N54W 13N56W 08N58W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD...THROUGH EASTERN HONDURAS...EASTERN NICARAGUA...INTO COSTA RICA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 82W AND 90W...IN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N15W TO 08N23W AND TO 10N34W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT AT THIS MOMENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG INLAND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 11W AND 17W...IN PARTS OF GUINEA...GUINEA-BISSAU... AND IN SENEGAL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 09N18W 09N20W 08N22W 07N25W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 10W AND 29W...AND FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 37W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO/THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N...ABOUT 160 NM TO THE EAST OF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL BORDER...ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...TO THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 31N73W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N73W TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO 25N83W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W TO 31N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N77W TO FLORIDA NEAR 27N82W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 34N68W 30N68W 27N72W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF COASTAL CUBA TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W 28N57W 25N67W 20N72W. A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N88W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGHS AND THE STATIONARY FRONT. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO 23N97W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 95W AND THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION THAT IS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES SOUTHWARD FROM 70W EASTWARD...INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND FROM 15N BETWEEN 74W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.40 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...0.13 IN TRINIDAD...0.07 IN BERMUDA... 0.06 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...0.02 IN ST. THOMAS...AND 0.01 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED. IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN BARAHONA. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS HISPANIOLA...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 24N63W TO HISPANIOLA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N13W TO 30N29W TO 28N30W AND 23N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 30N30W 28N41W AND 27N51W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N36W. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N57W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT