000 AXNT20 KNHC 121800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 15N35W TO 07N35W...MOVING AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS INDICATED IN MODEL STREAMLINES BETWEEN 30W AND 38W. SSMI TPW SHOWS A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 16N52W TO 08N56W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 700 MB STREAMLINES SHOW THE WAVE IS ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 48W AND 61W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N83W TO 10N84W...MOVING W AT 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP SURGE OF MOISTURE AND IS EMBEDDED IN A INVERTED TROUGH AT 700 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W ALONG 8N22W TO 10N32W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 12W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE SW N ATLC WITH A TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS SW ACROSS FL TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS S FL TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N80W. THE FRONT IS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING FROM W TO E. A 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N89W PROVIDING LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN GULF...EXCEPT THE NW GULF WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE AROUND 15 KT. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO NE WINDS ARE OVER THE S GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM W CUBA NEAR 23N82W TO 29N87W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SW N ATLC TO FL TO THE NW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRIER AIR. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH DEEP MOISTURE. ...HISPANIOLA... DRY AIR IS SPREADING ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OFFSHORE SC/GA AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND FL SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N77W TO 28N81W...A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N74W TO 27N78W TO MIAMI...AND A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH FROM 26N76W TO W CUBA NEAR 23N81W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 130 NM SE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT E OF 79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM AND 250 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT E OF 79W. A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N58W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N35W. THESE HIGH CENTERS ARE PART OF BROAD RIDGING SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER N OF 18N ACROSS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION W OF 65. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO