000 AXNT20 KNHC 121043 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 33W/34W FROM 7N- 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE 700 MB STREAMLINES SHOW THE WAVE IN AN INVERTED TROUGH AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 26W-33W AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 27W-37W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 16N48W TO 8N55W MOVING W 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE 700 MB STREAMLINES SHOW THE WAVE IN AN INVERTED TROUGH AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 9N-13N. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 83W FROM 10N-18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE 700 MB STREAMLINES SHOW THE WAVE IN AN INVERTED TROUGH AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W ALONG 8N21W 9N27W TO 10N32W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 23W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE GULF INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC AND SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA JUST N OF FORT LAUDERDALE TO JUST S OF NAPLES TO 24N88W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 24N93W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE W GULF WITH A 1014 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR CHANDELEUR SOUND. THIS IS LEAVING THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR N WATERS LATE TUE THEN DISSIPATE BY WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N87W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE TROUGH W OF 84W. A SECOND NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 12N75W WEDGING A UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THESE UPPER TROUGHS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWERS UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE ALL BUT THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 67W-79W AND S OF 17N W OF 79W-84W. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH WED. ...HISPANIOLA... THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHEN AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON LIMITING SHOWERS THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N79W AND SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N73W ALONG 29N74W TO ACROSS FLORIDA JUST N OF FORT LAUDERDALE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM SE OF THE FRONT S OF 29N E OF 78W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS W OF THE FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N75W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR TITUSVILLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE TROUGH N OF 29N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N- 27N BETWEEN 69W-79W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 70W WITH A PAIR OF 1019 MB HIGHS LOCATED NEAR 27N60W AND 28N34W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DRIFT SE AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS TONIGHT REACHING FROM NEAR 32N72W TO NE BAHAMAS EARLY WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW